National Hurricane Center


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 291143
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Ian, located near Cape Canaveral, and on
Tropical Depression Eleven, located several hundred miles west of
the Cabo Verde Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112022)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND LIKELY TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 29
 the center of Eleven was located near 19.1, -37.4
 with movement NW at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 291438
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112022
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 37.4W
ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 37.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h)
and a general northwestward motion is expected until the depression
dissipates in the next day or so.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is anticipated, and the system is forecast to degenerate
into a trough of low pressure, possibly as soon as this afternoon.
 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 291437
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112022
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  37.4W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  37.4W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  37.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.6N  38.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.8N  40.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N  37.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 

Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 291439
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112022
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022
 
The overnight deep convective burst with Tropical Depression Eleven 
did not appear to help spin up its low-level circulation. In fact, 
morning visible satellite imagery suggest that the circulation is 
actually losing definition, and may already be in the process of 
opening up into a surface trough. For now, we will continue writing 
advisories on the system, pending scatterometer data expected later 
today. The latest intensity was held at 30 kt based on the CI 
numbers from TAFB and SAB. If the current trends on visible 
satellite imagery continue, the system may be declared either 
post-tropical or dissipated as soon as this afternoon. Vertical wind 
shear only increases from here on out as the mid-level relative 
humidity remains quite low, so it looks increasingly unlikely the 
structure can recover. The NHC intensity forecast shows more 
immediate weakening but is generally in line with the intensity 
guidance consensus.
 
The initial motion appears to still be off to the northwest, just a
bit faster at 320/12 kt. This general motion is expected to
continue until the system dissipates, as the system is steered
generally by a low-level ridge that has nosed in to the northeast of
the depression. The updated track is quite similar, but just a
touch west, of the prior track, remaining close to the consensus
aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 19.1N  37.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 20.6N  38.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/1200Z 22.8N  40.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022


000
FONT11 KNHC 291438
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112022               
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN                                                    

Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics


Tropical Depression Eleven 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 14:38:21 GMT

Tropical Depression Eleven 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 15:29:09 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Ian (AT4/AL092022)

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA  WITH IAN...
 As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 29
 the center of Ian was located near 28.7, -80.4
 with movement NNE at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 987 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Ian Public Advisory Number 28

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 291500
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
 
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA 
WITH IAN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 80.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from South Santee River to
Little River Inlet, SC, and for the Neuse River.
 
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the entire coast of South
Carolina from the Savannah River to Little River Inlet.
 
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Duck,
North Carolina, including Pamlico Sound.
 
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Little River Inlet to
Duck, including the Pamlico River.
 
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Gulf coast
of Florida and Lake Okeechobee
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia Line to Little River Inlet
* Neuse River
* St. Johns River
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Little River Inlet
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was 
located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 80.4 West. Ian is moving 
toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the 
north is expected late today, followed by a turn toward the 
north-northwest with an increase in forward speed Friday night.  On 
the forecast track, Ian will approach the coast of South Carolina on 
Friday.  The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas 
Friday night and Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Ian is expected to become a hurricane again 
this evening and make landfall as a hurricane on Friday, with rapid 
weakening forecast after landfall.
 
Ian is a large cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward 
up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. A NOAA CMAN station at the 
Saint Johns County pier in Saint Augustine Beach recently reported a 
sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h). 
A WeatherSTEM station reported a gust of 74 mph (119 km/h) was 
reported at Marineland, Florida.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Edisto Beach to South Santee River...4-7 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach...4-6 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Duck, including Pamlico and 
Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee including Charlotte Harbor... 1-3 ft
* Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to begin over the
Hurricane Warning area starting early Friday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning overnight.
 
Tropical storm conditions are now occurring in parts of the
warning area on the east coasts of Florida and should spread
northward along the Georgia and North Carolina coasts today through
Friday.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area in northeastern Florida and Georgia today into Friday.
 
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:
 
* East Central to Northeast Florida: Additional rainfall of 2 to 4
inches, with storm totals around 20 inches in spots.
* Coastal Georgia: 2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts.
* Lowcountry of South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of
12 inches.
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern
Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across western
North Carolina.
 
Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week.  Considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is
expected across coastal portions of northeast Florida, southeastern
Georgia, and eastern South Carolina through Friday.  Locally
considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible
this weekend across portions of the southern Appalachians, where
landslides will be possible as well. Limited flooding is possible
across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic.
 
TORNADOES:  A tornado or two will be possible Friday across the
coastal Carolinas.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
Florida. Swells will increase along the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina and North Carolina today.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Tropical Storm Ian Forecast Advisory Number 28

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 291459
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO
LITTLE RIVER INLET...SC...AND FOR THE NEUSE RIVER.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO DUCK...
NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO RIVER.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE GULF COAST
OF FLORIDA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* NEUSE RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET FLORIDA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO RIVER
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IAN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N  80.4W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT.......360NE 120SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N  80.4W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  80.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.0N  79.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...330NE 130SE 110SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.8N  79.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  30SW  80NW.
34 KT...270NE 150SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.0N  80.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.9N  81.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.0N  82.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N  80.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 

Tropical Storm Ian Forecast Discussion Number 28

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 291500
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
 
The center of Ian has emerged into the western Atlantic Ocean to
the north of Cape Canaveral.  While satellite images show the
system is becoming a hybrid cyclone, with frontal features outside 
of the core of Ian, the winds from multiple sources are notable.  
Velocity data from NWS Doppler radar indicate maximum winds of about 
70-75 kt at 10,000 ft over land, and sustained winds of about 55 kt 
were recorded in the Daytona Beach area earlier this morning.  These 
data support a higher initial intensity, now 60 kt for this 
advisory.
 
The storm is moving northeastward at about 8 kt.  Ian has stubbornly 
gone east of the track forecast for the past couple of days and has 
moved back over water faster than expected.   A mid-level shortwave 
trough moving southward across the southern United States should 
turn Ian northward overnight and north-northwestward on Saturday. 
The official track forecast is shifted to the east, consistent with 
the latest consensus guidance.
 
Ian should move over the Gulf Stream tonight and tomorrow for a 
longer period of time than previously anticipated, which should 
maintain Ian's central convection.  Additionally, an increased 
pressure gradient on the northwestern side from a stationary front 
near the southeastern US, should provide a boost to the wind speeds 
on that side of the storm.  We now expect Ian to become a hurricane 
again by this evening.  As the system approaches South Carolina, Ian 
should maintain this intensity, and Hurricane Warnings have been 
issued for the entire coast of South Carolina.  This scenario is 
consistent with the global and regional hurricane model guidance.  
It is worth noting that Ian is forecast to have atypical structure 
when it nears the southeastern United States, and strong winds will 
extend well ahead of the center, even on the northwestern side.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge through Friday
along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials.
 
2. Hurricane-force winds are expected across the South Carolina
coast beginning early Friday, where a Hurricane Warning has been
issued. Hurricane conditions are possible by tonight along the
coasts of northeastern Florida and Georgia, where a Hurricane Watch
is in effect.   Preparations should be rushed to completion since
tropical-storm-force winds will begin well before the center
approaches the coast.
 
3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue across
portions of central Florida, with considerable flooding in northern
Florida.  Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across
coastal portions of northeast Florida through Friday. Local
significant flooding in southeastern Georgia and eastern South
Carolina is expected through the end of the week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 28.7N  80.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 30.0N  79.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 31.8N  79.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 34.0N  80.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  01/1200Z 35.9N  81.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  02/0000Z 37.0N  82.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Tropical Storm Ian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022


000
FONT14 KNHC 291500
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   2( 2)  20(22)   9(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   2( 2)  10(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   4( 4)  28(32)  12(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
GREENSBORO NC  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   7( 7)  30(37)   5(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   6( 6)  22(28)   3(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X  11(11)   7(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  1  23(24)  38(62)   2(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   7( 7)  37(44)   7(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)
CHARLOTTE NC   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X  17(17)  17(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  1  31(32)   6(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  1  34(35)   8(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  9  45(54)  10(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  4  46(50)  17(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 31  43(74)   7(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  5  51(56)  28(84)   X(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   1( 1)  22(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
FLORENCE SC    64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  3  33(36)  29(65)   2(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
COLUMBIA SC    64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 32  46(78)  10(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   3( 3)  11(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
LITTLE RIVER   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 40  44(84)   8(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   6( 6)  15(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34 43  47(90)   5(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   8( 8)  25(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
GEORGETOWN SC  64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34 67  27(94)   3(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X  29(29)  27(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   4( 4)   9(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34 71  21(92)   2(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X  31(31)   9(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  3  18(21)  18(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X  11(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
KINGS BAY GA   50  5   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MAYPORT NS FL  50 11   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
JACKSONVILLE   50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
DAYTONA BEACH  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
THE VILLAGES   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ORLANDO FL     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ORLANDO FL     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PATRICK AFB    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PATRICK AFB    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
W PALM BEACH   34 16   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  9   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
MARATHON FL    34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NAPLES FL      34  7   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
TAMPA FL       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  6   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34 11   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Tropical Storm Ian Graphics


Tropical Storm Ian 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 15:00:44 GMT

Tropical Storm Ian 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 15:22:59 GMT

Tropical Storm Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics


Tropical Storm Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 15:53:48 GMT

Tropical Storm Ian Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map


Tropical Storm Ian Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 16:29:21 GMT

Tropical Storm Ian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map


Tropical Storm Ian Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 15:02:18 GMT

Local Statement for Miami, FL

Issued at  817 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Local Statement for Raleigh, NC

Issued at  1117 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Local Statement for Jacksonville, FL

Issued at  1119 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Local Statement for Wilmington, NC

Issued at  1120 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Local Statement for Columbia, SC

Issued at  1127 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL

Issued at  1135 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 /1035 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022/

Local Statement for Charleston, SC

Issued at  1135 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Local Statement for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Issued at  1138 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL

Issued at  1149 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at  1150 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Local Statement for Melbourne, FL

Issued at  1212 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022