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National Hurricane Center |
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta Public Advisory Number 26The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy (AT5/AL202020)...TEDDY HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND... ...FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 23 the center of Teddy was located near 51.0, -57.3 with movement NNE at 32 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph. Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Public Advisory Number 47Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020000 WTNT35 KNHC 240243 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 ...TEDDY HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND... ...FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...51.0N 57.3W ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM NNE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM NNW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy was located near latitude 51.0 North, longitude 57.3 West based on the Marble Mountain, Newfoundland, radar and surface observations along the west coast of Newfoundland. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Teddy should move closer to the northwestern Newfoundland coast tonight and into the Labrador Sea on Thursday before merging with a larger extratropical low. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before the system merges with the extratropical low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). By the Sea, Newfoundland (near the Cow Head Lighthouse) reported a barometric pressure of 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Gusty winds are possible along the western coast of Newfoundland tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For hazard information for Newfoundland and Labrador, please consult products issued by Environment Canada at weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html Additional information on the post-tropical cyclone can also be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. $$ Forecaster Roberts Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 47Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2020000 WTNT25 KNHC 240242 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 57.3W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 28 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 840SE 900SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 57.3W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 49.7N 58.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 54.7N 54.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...MERGED WITH A LARGER LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.0N 57.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 47Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020000 WTNT45 KNHC 240243 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 Teddy is accelerating over the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence and will move over the Strait of Belle Isle later, while continuing to fill/decay as an extratropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt, and this is based on the various surface wind and pressure observations along the west coast of Newfoundland from Channel-Port aux Basques northward to Port Saunders and the Straits. Teddy is forecast to maintain its current intensity and motion, with some further increase in forward speed, and merge with a larger, stronger high-latitude extratropical low near the Labrador Sea on Thursday. Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells creating dangerous rip currents will linger over much of the southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days. This will be the last NHC advisory on Teddy. For additional information, including warnings, consult products issued by Environment Canada at: weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html For marine interests, additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 51.0N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 24/1200Z 54.7N 54.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 25/0000Z...MERGED WITH A LARGER LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 47Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2020
000
FONT15 KNHC 240243
PWSAT5
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2020
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 51.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BURGEO NFLD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PTX BASQUES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Graphics
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