National Hurricane Center


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 232317
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Teddy, located near the coast of Newfoundland, Canada. The
Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Beta located inland over central Louisiana.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta Public Advisory Number 26

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy (AT5/AL202020)

...TEDDY HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND... ...FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY  ENVIRONMENT CANADA...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 23
 the center of Teddy was located near 51.0, -57.3
 with movement NNE at 32 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 975 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Public Advisory Number 47

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 240243
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020
 
...TEDDY HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...
...FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY 
ENVIRONMENT CANADA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...51.0N 57.3W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM NNE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM NNW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 51.0 North, longitude 57.3 West based on 
the Marble Mountain, Newfoundland, radar and surface observations 
along the west coast of Newfoundland.  The post-tropical cyclone 
is moving toward the north-northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h), and 
this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday.  On 
the forecast track, the center of Teddy should move closer to the 
northwestern Newfoundland coast tonight and into the Labrador Sea on 
Thursday before merging with a larger extratropical low.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before the system merges with 
the extratropical low on Thursday.  

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).
By the Sea, Newfoundland (near the Cow Head Lighthouse) reported a 
barometric pressure of 979 mb (28.91 inches). 

 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
WIND:  Gusty winds are possible along the western coast of
Newfoundland tonight.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For hazard information for Newfoundland and 
Labrador, please consult products issued by Environment Canada at 
weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

Additional information on the post-tropical cyclone can also be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 47

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2020  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 240242
TCMAT5
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202020
0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N  57.3W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  28 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 840SE 900SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N  57.3W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 49.7N  58.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 54.7N  54.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...MERGED WITH A LARGER LOW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.0N  57.3W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 47

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 240243
TCDAT5
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020
 
Teddy is accelerating over the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence and
will move over the Strait of Belle Isle later, while continuing
to fill/decay as an extratropical cyclone.  The initial intensity
is set at 45 kt, and this is based on the various surface wind and
pressure observations along the west coast of Newfoundland from
Channel-Port aux Basques northward to Port Saunders and the Straits. 
Teddy is forecast to maintain its current intensity and motion, 
with some further increase in forward speed, and merge with a 
larger, stronger high-latitude extratropical low near the Labrador 
Sea on Thursday.
 
Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells
creating dangerous rip currents will linger over much of the
southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days.
 
This will be the last NHC advisory on Teddy.  For additional
information, including warnings, consult products issued by 
Environment Canada at:  weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html
 
For marine interests, additional information can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 51.0N  57.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  24/1200Z 54.7N  54.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  25/0000Z...MERGED WITH A LARGER LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 47

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2020


000
FONT15 KNHC 240243
PWSAT5
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  47     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202020               
0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 51.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BURGEO NFLD    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PTX BASQUES    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Graphics


Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2020 02:45:39 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2020 03:25:13 GMT