000
ABNT20 KNHC 291143
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Ian, located near Cape Canaveral, and on
Tropical Depression Eleven, located several hundred miles west of
the Cabo Verde Islands.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
$$
Forecaster Papin
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND LIKELY TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO...
As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 29
the center of Eleven was located near 19.1, -37.4
with movement NW at 14 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022
000
WTNT31 KNHC 291438
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 37.4W
ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 37.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h)
and a general northwestward motion is expected until the depression
dissipates in the next day or so.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is anticipated, and the system is forecast to degenerate
into a trough of low pressure, possibly as soon as this afternoon.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
000
WTNT21 KNHC 291437
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112022
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 37.4W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 37.4W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 37.0W
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.6N 38.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.8N 40.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 37.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022
000
WTNT41 KNHC 291439
TCDAT1
Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022
The overnight deep convective burst with Tropical Depression Eleven
did not appear to help spin up its low-level circulation. In fact,
morning visible satellite imagery suggest that the circulation is
actually losing definition, and may already be in the process of
opening up into a surface trough. For now, we will continue writing
advisories on the system, pending scatterometer data expected later
today. The latest intensity was held at 30 kt based on the CI
numbers from TAFB and SAB. If the current trends on visible
satellite imagery continue, the system may be declared either
post-tropical or dissipated as soon as this afternoon. Vertical wind
shear only increases from here on out as the mid-level relative
humidity remains quite low, so it looks increasingly unlikely the
structure can recover. The NHC intensity forecast shows more
immediate weakening but is generally in line with the intensity
guidance consensus.
The initial motion appears to still be off to the northwest, just a
bit faster at 320/12 kt. This general motion is expected to
continue until the system dissipates, as the system is steered
generally by a low-level ridge that has nosed in to the northeast of
the depression. The updated track is quite similar, but just a
touch west, of the prior track, remaining close to the consensus
aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 19.1N 37.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 20.6N 38.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/1200Z 22.8N 40.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
000
FONT11 KNHC 291438
PWSAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112022
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 14:38:21 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 15:29:09 GMT
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH IAN...
As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 29
the center of Ian was located near 28.7, -80.4
with movement NNE at 9 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 987 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
000
WTNT34 KNHC 291500
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
WITH IAN...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 80.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from South Santee River to
Little River Inlet, SC, and for the Neuse River.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the entire coast of South
Carolina from the Savannah River to Little River Inlet.
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Duck,
North Carolina, including Pamlico Sound.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Little River Inlet to
Duck, including the Pamlico River.
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Gulf coast
of Florida and Lake Okeechobee
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia Line to Little River Inlet
* Neuse River
* St. Johns River
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Little River Inlet
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 80.4 West. Ian is moving
toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected late today, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest with an increase in forward speed Friday night. On
the forecast track, Ian will approach the coast of South Carolina on
Friday. The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas
Friday night and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ian is expected to become a hurricane again
this evening and make landfall as a hurricane on Friday, with rapid
weakening forecast after landfall.
Ian is a large cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. A NOAA CMAN station at the
Saint Johns County pier in Saint Augustine Beach recently reported a
sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).
A WeatherSTEM station reported a gust of 74 mph (119 km/h) was
reported at Marineland, Florida.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River...4-7 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach...4-6 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Duck, including Pamlico and
Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee including Charlotte Harbor... 1-3 ft
* Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin over the
Hurricane Warning area starting early Friday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning overnight.
Tropical storm conditions are now occurring in parts of the
warning area on the east coasts of Florida and should spread
northward along the Georgia and North Carolina coasts today through
Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area in northeastern Florida and Georgia today into Friday.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:
* East Central to Northeast Florida: Additional rainfall of 2 to 4
inches, with storm totals around 20 inches in spots.
* Coastal Georgia: 2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts.
* Lowcountry of South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of
12 inches.
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern
Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across western
North Carolina.
Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week. Considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is
expected across coastal portions of northeast Florida, southeastern
Georgia, and eastern South Carolina through Friday. Locally
considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible
this weekend across portions of the southern Appalachians, where
landslides will be possible as well. Limited flooding is possible
across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Friday across the
coastal Carolinas.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
Florida. Swells will increase along the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina and North Carolina today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
000
WTNT24 KNHC 291459
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO
LITTLE RIVER INLET...SC...AND FOR THE NEUSE RIVER.
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO DUCK...
NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO RIVER.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE GULF COAST
OF FLORIDA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* NEUSE RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET FLORIDA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO RIVER
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IAN.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 80.4W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......360NE 120SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 80.4W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 80.7W
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.0N 79.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...330NE 130SE 110SW 170NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.8N 79.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.0N 80.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.9N 81.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.0N 82.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 80.4W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
000
WTNT44 KNHC 291500
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
The center of Ian has emerged into the western Atlantic Ocean to
the north of Cape Canaveral. While satellite images show the
system is becoming a hybrid cyclone, with frontal features outside
of the core of Ian, the winds from multiple sources are notable.
Velocity data from NWS Doppler radar indicate maximum winds of about
70-75 kt at 10,000 ft over land, and sustained winds of about 55 kt
were recorded in the Daytona Beach area earlier this morning. These
data support a higher initial intensity, now 60 kt for this
advisory.
The storm is moving northeastward at about 8 kt. Ian has stubbornly
gone east of the track forecast for the past couple of days and has
moved back over water faster than expected. A mid-level shortwave
trough moving southward across the southern United States should
turn Ian northward overnight and north-northwestward on Saturday.
The official track forecast is shifted to the east, consistent with
the latest consensus guidance.
Ian should move over the Gulf Stream tonight and tomorrow for a
longer period of time than previously anticipated, which should
maintain Ian's central convection. Additionally, an increased
pressure gradient on the northwestern side from a stationary front
near the southeastern US, should provide a boost to the wind speeds
on that side of the storm. We now expect Ian to become a hurricane
again by this evening. As the system approaches South Carolina, Ian
should maintain this intensity, and Hurricane Warnings have been
issued for the entire coast of South Carolina. This scenario is
consistent with the global and regional hurricane model guidance.
It is worth noting that Ian is forecast to have atypical structure
when it nears the southeastern United States, and strong winds will
extend well ahead of the center, even on the northwestern side.
Key Messages:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge through Friday
along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials.
2. Hurricane-force winds are expected across the South Carolina
coast beginning early Friday, where a Hurricane Warning has been
issued. Hurricane conditions are possible by tonight along the
coasts of northeastern Florida and Georgia, where a Hurricane Watch
is in effect. Preparations should be rushed to completion since
tropical-storm-force winds will begin well before the center
approaches the coast.
3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue across
portions of central Florida, with considerable flooding in northern
Florida. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across
coastal portions of northeast Florida through Friday. Local
significant flooding in southeastern Georgia and eastern South
Carolina is expected through the end of the week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 28.7N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 30.0N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 31.8N 79.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 34.0N 80.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/1200Z 35.9N 81.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 02/0000Z 37.0N 82.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
000
FONT14 KNHC 291500
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
DANVILLE VA 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 9(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X 4( 4) 28(32) 12(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
RALEIGH NC 34 X 7( 7) 30(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X 6( 6) 22(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 11(11) 7(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 1 23(24) 38(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 7( 7) 37(44) 7(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52)
CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X 17(17) 17(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
NEW RIVER NC 34 1 31(32) 6(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 34(35) 8(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
SURF CITY NC 34 9 45(54) 10(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
WILMINGTON NC 34 4 46(50) 17(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 31 43(74) 7(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
FLORENCE SC 34 5 51(56) 28(84) X(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85)
FLORENCE SC 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 34 3 33(36) 29(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
LITTLE RIVER 34 32 46(78) 10(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 40 44(84) 8(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 6( 6) 15(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 43 47(90) 5(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 8( 8) 25(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CHARLESTON SC 34 67 27(94) 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X 29(29) 27(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 71 21(92) 2(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 31(31) 9(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ATLANTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
AUGUSTA GA 34 3 18(21) 18(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAVANNAH GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
KINGS BAY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
KINGS BAY GA 50 5 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
WAYCROSS GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
JACKSONVILLE 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ORLANDO FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PATRICK AFB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PATRICK AFB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
W PALM BEACH 34 16 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
MARATHON FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NAPLES FL 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
FT MYERS FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ST MARKS FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
APALACHICOLA 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
COLUMBUS GA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 15:00:44 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 15:22:59 GMT
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 15:53:48 GMT
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 16:29:21 GMT
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 15:02:18 GMT
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