000
FXUS61 KBOX 292018
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH DRY...COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER
LIKELY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.
THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE MAY TRACK JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 20Z COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTH INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA. THEREFORE HAVE CONFINED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM
TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. BY
00Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MUCH DRIER/LESS HUMID AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEW PTS
ALREADY IN THE 50S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MA PIKE INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. THIS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROVIDING VERY
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO TEMPS
DIPPING INTO THE 50S REGIONWIDE...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING LOW TO
MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT BREEZY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
OCEAN WATERS. THIS STEEPENS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
SHORT WAVE TROF/SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR. DON/T
THINK WE WILL SEE ANY SHOWERS FRI AS DEW PTS DROP INTO THE 40S
ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY 5.5C/KM. THUS INSUFFICENT
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT POPS.
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE FRI WITH HIGHS 75-80. WITH DEW PTS IN THE
40S IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL CONSIDERABLY COOLER IN THE SHADE.
SURF FORECAST...
LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TODAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK OF STRONG RIPS AND ROUGH SURF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH WIND
WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MA AS NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT OF 20-25 KT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK UP THE SURF
FRI FOR EASTERN MA BEACHES.
FRIDAY NIGHT...
COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD/DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGIONWIDE WITH EVEN SOME U40S ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. NOT AS COOL IN THE URBAN AREAS
INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG
TERM WITH MOSTLY QUIET...PLEASANT WEATHER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID WEEK.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL SATURDAY WITH COOLER...MORE
SEASONABLE OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...
PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR A
CHANGE...THE ECMWF IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND MOVES IT
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THE GFS MOVES IT ACROSS MORE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
FOR SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY AND SUFFICE IT TO SAY THE
TIMING OF THE POP FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE EAST COASTAL
AREAS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA EVENTUALLY PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS AND THUS
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN THESE AREAS.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS EVENING...
VFR WITH IFR CONFINED TO ACK EARLY. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE
CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBOS TERMINAL...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR.
OVERNIGHT...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LOW PROB OF N-NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT
HYA AND ACK.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR BUT
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. FIRST FOR SOUTH
SWELLS OF 4-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THEN FOR A PERIOD OF
N-NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
LOW PROB OF ISOLATED TSTM THIS EVENING SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...
PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. LEFTOVER SOUTH
SWELL SOUTH COAST AND LEFTOVER N-NE SWELLS FOR EASTERN MA WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ232>234-236-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-231-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
