National Hurricane Center

Atlantic Region Tropical Outlook


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 191145
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda,
and on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles east of
the Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some
development of this system is possible while the system approaches
the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across the
eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An elongated area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
is located just south of the Dominican Republic. Although
upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development,
thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated since yesterday.
Some slight development is still possible before the system begins
to interact with the high terrain of Hispaniola. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the
Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next day or two. The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly northwestward through the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for at least gradual development thereafter while the system moves
westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Depression Imelda Public Advisory Number 9

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 19
 the center of Humberto was located near 36.8, -60.0
 with movement NE at 24 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 955 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 28

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 191448
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
LATER TODAY...
...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE EAST COAST
OF THE U.S...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 60.0W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 60.0 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h).  A slower north-
northeastward motion is expected later today and tonight.  A turn
toward the east-northeast is expected to commence on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  The hurricane is expected to slowly weaken and become a
post-tropical cyclone later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 405
miles (650 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will
continue along the coast of Bermuda during the next day or two, and
these could continue to cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and much of
the coast of the United States from east-central Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 28

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 191448
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N  60.0W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  21 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......220NE 170SE 160SW 350NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 480SE 960SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N  60.0W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N  60.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.8N  58.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 41.2N  57.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 150SW 210NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 43.2N  54.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE  90SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 180SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 44.6N  49.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 200SE 200SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N  60.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 28

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 191450
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Humberto is still a powerful hurricane, but the system is in the
process of transitioning to an extratropical cyclone.  Satellite
images indicate that frontal features have formed, and cooler and
drier air is wrapping around the western and southern sides of the
circulation.  Deep convection is most organized to the north and
west of the partially exposed low-level center.  The initial
intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this advisory.

A mid- to upper-level low situated just west of Humberto has been
aiding in its transition, and the global models suggest that
Humberto will become fully extratropical later today.  Despite the
fact that the cyclone is expected to lose its tropical
characteristics, it is still forecast to produce winds of
hurricane-force for another 36 hours or so.

Humberto is moving northeastward at 21 kt.  A turn to the
north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected later
today and tonight as Humberto rotates around the north side of the
mid- to upper-level low.  After that, a faster east-northeast or
east motion is expected, as the system becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The cyclone should be absorbed by
another extratropical low in about 3 days over the far north
Atlantic.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda, the northwestern
Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States from east-central
Florida to the Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days.
These swells could create life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 36.8N  60.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 38.8N  58.9W   90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/1200Z 41.2N  57.6W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  21/0000Z 43.2N  54.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/1200Z 44.6N  49.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019


000
FONT14 KNHC 191449
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)  18(18)  10(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   2( 2)  17(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   4( 4)   6(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  2  56(58)   4(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Hurricane Humberto Graphics


Hurricane Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 14:51:23 GMT

Hurricane Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:25:03 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY IS A HURRICANE...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 19
 the center of Jerry was located near 16.8, -54.4
 with movement WNW at 16 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 988 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 191454
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY IS A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 54.4W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.  Additional watches could be issued later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 54.4 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest
motion at a similar forward speed is expected over the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or
north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass north of Puerto
Rico on Saturday and east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Jerry is forecast to strengthen during the next
day before some weakening begins this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL:  Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Marteen/Anguilla into Anegada. Jerry is
forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to begin to affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands this afternoon.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 191452
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBUDA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  54.4W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  54.4W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  53.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N  56.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N  59.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N  62.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.7N  64.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.5N  68.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N  70.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 30.5N  67.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N  54.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 

Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 191456
TCDAT5

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Satellite images indicate that the center of Jerry is on the
northwestern side of the central dense overcast near a very deep
convective burst.  An Air Force recon plane just flew through the
center and found a central pressure of 988 mb and SFMR values near
65 kt.  These data support making Jerry the 4th hurricane of the
2019 Atlantic hurricane season with initial wind speed of 65 kt.

Jerry has the potential to further strengthen today, but an
increase in northwesterly shear related to an upper-level ridge is
anticipated overnight. This change in shear will likely arrest the
development of Jerry and start a slow weakening trend sometime
tomorrow. In 3 or 4 days, Jerry could enter a more conducive
environment for strengthening, but there is a pretty large spread in
the shear forecast near the cyclone at this time, related to the
positioning of Jerry relative to the ridge. Since the environmental
uncertainty at long range is so high, little change has been made to
the previous forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/14
kt.  The track forecast has remained rather consistent during the
past several cycles, taking Jerry just north of the Leeward
Islands during the first couple of days due to seemingly reliable
steering flow from the subtropical ridge to the north. The track
is a little trickier beyond that time due to some dependence on the
strength of Jerry, with a stronger system likely moving a
bit longer toward the west-northwest, similar to the latest
ECMWF/HWRF forecast. Regardless, the cyclone should eventually turn
northward and northeastward by day 5 due to a substantial break in
the subtropical ridge.  The track forecast puts slightly greater
weight on those stronger solutions, and the official track forecast
is a little left of the various consensus aids and not too far from
the last NHC prediction.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to pass north of
northern Leeward Islands, tropical-storm-force winds and locally
heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches are in
effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 16.8N  54.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 17.5N  56.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 18.5N  59.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 19.5N  62.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 20.7N  64.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 23.5N  68.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 26.5N  70.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 30.5N  67.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019


000
FONT15 KNHC 191454
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   1(13)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   1( 1)  12(13)   5(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABA           34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AVES           34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Hurricane Jerry Graphics


Hurricane Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:03:49 GMT

Hurricane Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:32:11 GMT