000
WTNT35 KNHC 072351
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER
8A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
700 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
CORRECTED STATUS TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
...HERMINE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...STILL PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 99.4W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM SW OF BRADY TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.4 WEST. HERMINE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...33 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS HERMINE
MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL GRADUALLY
RECEDE...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT25 KNHC 072032
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 98.7W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 98.7W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 98.5W
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 31.5N 99.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.0N 99.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 36.6N 98.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 39.0N 95.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 98.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
000
WTNT45 KNHC 072033
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT
HERMINE IS STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THEREFORE...HERMINE REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL STORM WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. DESPITE
BEING WELL INLAND...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED AN INNER
CORE AND RAINBANDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN A FEW
DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/16...AND THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART
OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/2100Z 29.9N 98.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 31.5N 99.4W 25 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 08/1800Z 34.0N 99.2W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 09/0600Z 36.6N 98.1W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 09/1800Z 39.0N 95.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
000
FONT15 KNHC 072033
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2010
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 13 42 54 64 NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 75 54 45 36 NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 12 5 1 X NA NA NA
HURRICANE X X X X NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE...LOCATED INLAND OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS NEAR BRADY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE REMNANTS OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF PONCE PUERTO
RICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS REMAINS MINIMAL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
